ABSTRACT
Commodities are defined as goods that are traded. Thousands of different items are sold on international markets, but strategically important commodities such as gold, silver, and oil are used far more frequently in the real estate industry and financial markets. Oil and these metals are employed in numerous industrial applications throughout the economy, but they also draw substantial investment. The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal connections between the prices of gold and silver, two precious metals, and oil and natural gas, the two most often used energy sources. This was accomplished by comparing the weekly prices of Brent Petroleum (BRENT), Crude Oil (WTI), Natural Gas (NG), and the weekly data of Gold and Silver during and before the SARS-CoV2 epidemic. The study employed the Distributed Delayed Autoregressive Bound Test (ARDL) approach to examine the relationship between the prices of energy (natural gas, Brent oil, and crude oil) and precious metals (silver and gold). The ARDL test showed that the prices of WTI, Brent, and NG had a big effect on the prices of silver and gold during and before the SARS-COV2 pandemic.
ABSTRACT
Petroleum and natural gas, which are among the most used energy sources in the world, have a significant impact on financial markets and macroeconomic indicators as they are used as raw materials in many fields. For this reason, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, and India, as energy importers and developing countries, may be affected positively or negatively by changes in energy prices. The main purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between Brent oil, crude oil (WTI), and natural gas (NG) prices and Moscow Stock Exchange Index (RTSI), Borsa Istanbul Index (XU100), Bovespa Brazilian Stock Exchange Index (BVSP), and Indian National Stock Exchange Nifty 50 Index (NSEI). In the study, weekly data between 16.02.2020 and 26.12.2021 were examined. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used to examine the correlation between the variables included in the analysis, and the direction of the correlation between the variables was determined by the Granger causality test. According to the results of the VAR model, Brent oil and crude oil prices have significant effects on the indices included in the analysis;however, natural gas price does not have a significant effect on indices, Brent oil, and crude oil prices. On the other hand, the results of the Granger causality test confirm the findings of the VAR analysis. Granger causality test results reveal that in Granger's sense, only BVSP and NSEI are the cause of Brent oil price, RTSI, BVSP, NSEI, and XU100 are the cause of WTI, and WTI is the cause of NSEI.
ABSTRACT
2019 yılının Aralık ayında Çin'in Wuhan eyaletinde ortaya çıkmış ve 2020 yılının başından itibaren tüm dünyaya yayılmış ve 2022 yılının başına kadar devam etmiştir. Bu salgın insanların hem sağlığını hem de sosyal hayatını olumsuz etkilemiştir. Bu olumsuz etkiler finansal piyasalarda ve makroekonomik göstergelerde önemli ölçüde kendini hissettirmiştir. Bu araştırmada SARS-CoV2'nin gelişmiş ülkelerin borsa endeksleri üzerindeki etkisinin incelenerek ortaya konulması amaçlanmıştır. Başka bir deyişle, çalışmanın temel amacı, 6 gelişmiş ülkenin borsa endeksleri üzerinde günlük vaka ve günlük ölümlerin etkilerini incelemektir. Çalışmada, günlük SARS-CoV2 vaka ve ölüm sayılarının gelişmiş ülkeler olan ABD, Íngiltere, Fransa, Kanada, Japonya ve Ítalya borsa endekslerine etkisi istatistiksel olarak analiz edildi. Çalışmada 16.02.2020 ile 26.12.2021 tarihleri arasındaki günlük veriler incelenmiştir. Analize dahil edilen değişkenler arasındaki korelasyon ve değişkenler arasındaki etki regresyon testi ile belirlendi.Alternate :It emerged in the Wuhan province of China in December 2019 and spread to the world from the beginning of 2020 and continued until the beginning of 2022. This epidemic has adversely affected both the health and social life of people. These negative effects made itself felt significantly on financial markets and macroeconomic indicators. In this research, it is aimed to reveal the effect of SARS-CoV2 on the stock market indices of developed countries by examining it. In other words, the main purpose of the study is to examine the effects of daily cases and daily deaths on stock market indices of 6 developed countries. In the study, the effects of the daily number of SARS-CoV2 cases and deaths on the stock market indices of the USA, England, France, Canada, Japan and Italy, which are developed countries, were analyzed statistically. In the study, daily data between 16.02.2020 and 26.12.2021 were examined. The correlation between the variables included in the analysis and the effect between the variables were determined by regression test.